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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and recent strugglers ascending collectively. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still