A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
